The Rate Rise Everyone Expects, and the One Nobody Can Agree On

On Tuesday afternoon, the Reserve Bank board is expected to lift the cash rate for the fifth time this year, from 4.60% to 4.85%. Every major bank's economics team now thinks a rise is close to locked in. What they do not agree on is what happens after that. Some think Tuesday is the last one for a while. Others think there is more to come.

If you have a mortgage, or you are trying to work out how much you can borrow for your first home, that disagreement matters more than the headline number does.

A move that looks almost certain

The cash rate has sat at 4.60% since the Reserve Bank's last move on 30 September. The board meets again on Tuesday 3 November, which happens to fall on Melbourne Cup Day, with the decision due at 2:30pm.

CommBank's economics team now expects the board to raise the rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.85%, and said late last month that market pricing for a November rise had climbed to around 90%. A move of that size would be the fifth increase in 2026 alone, on top of a run of hikes most borrowers have already felt through the year.

What it would do to your repayments

Canstar's modelling, published in late October, gives a sense of the scale. A quarter point rise adds about $77 a month to the minimum repayment on a $500,000 loan, about $107 on a $700,000 loan, and about $153 on a $1 million loan, assuming the lender passes the full rise on. Those figures cover Tuesday's expected move alone. Stack it on top of the four rises already handed down this year, and for many households the cumulative hit to the monthly budget is a lot bigger than any single number suggests.

Where the four big banks split

This is the part worth paying attention to. CBA and NAB both expect the board to hold steady in December after Tuesday's move, and both treat 4.85% as the likely peak for this cycle. CBA has described a November rise as an "insurance hike" and says it is not fully convinced four rises this year will prove to be enough, even while it is not forecasting a sixth. NAB expects a pause from December but has been blunt that the Reserve Bank is, in its words, "a long way from declaring victory on inflation."

Westpac and ANZ are less settled. Westpac expects a December hold too, but sees a rising chance of a further move in February 2027 if inflation does not ease as hoped, while stopping short of making that its base case. ANZ is the most cautious of the four, pointing to what it calls a material risk that the cash rate could reach 5.10% by December this year or February next year.

All four eventually expect rates to come down again, with CommBank pencilling in cuts for August and November 2027, but every one of them has flagged real uncertainty about the timing. When the banks that set these rates for a living cannot agree on the next twelve months, that uncertainty is worth factoring into your own plans rather than something to feel behind on.

What it means if you have a mortgage, or want one

If Tuesday's rise goes ahead, most lenders are expected to pass it through to variable rate customers in full, in line with how they handled the previous four rises this year. If you are on a variable rate, it is worth checking your own repayment date and budgeting for the change before it lands rather than after.

If you have been weighing up fixing part or all of your loan, the split between the big four is a useful reminder that nobody, including the banks themselves, can call the top of a rate cycle with any certainty. A more realistic approach is to look at what your own household budget can comfortably absorb if rates move either way, rather than trying to pick the exact peak.

It also helps to understand how lenders assess your borrowing power in the first place. Under APRA's current rules, lenders must test whether you could still make repayments at your actual interest rate plus a buffer of three percentage points. That buffer is part of why most approved borrowers still have some room to absorb further rises, even in a year that has already brought five of them. If you are planning a purchase in the next few months, it is worth talking through your numbers at both today's rate and a higher one, so a result like Tuesday's does not catch your plans off guard.

A conversation with a broker before Tuesday afternoon will usually tell you more about your own situation than another day of headlines will.

Figures note: cash rate and decision date from the Reserve Bank of Australia; bank economist forecasts from CommBank Newsroom (28 October 2026) and savings.com.au (30 October 2026); repayment estimates from Canstar (28 October 2026); APRA serviceability buffer confirmed current via APRA's public statements as at the time of writing.

This article is general information only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Please speak with a Claremont Financial broker before making any borrowing decision.